First oesophageal cancer predictor model

The potential tool, developed by the Queensland Institute of Medical Research (QIMR), is the first to attempt to determine absolute five-year risk for individuals based on key symptoms and lifestyle factors.

“GPs need to anticipate greater numbers of people presenting with this disease and that’s why it’s important to get these tools out there and that information out there to the general public and to GPs,” said lead author Dr Aaron Thrift (PhD), a researcher at QIMR.

The risk prediction model is based on data from 364 patients with incident oesophageal adenocarcinoma and 1580 population controls.

The study found predictive factors for oesophageal cancer included education level, BMI, smoking status, gastro-oesophageal reflux, use of acid suppressant medication and non-aspirin NSAIDs, whereas aspirin conferred health benefits.

Absolute five-year risk for oesophageal cancer in patients who had longstanding reflux