Calculator based on common blood markers beats FIB-4 for assessing liver disease risk: BMJ study

The new model developed by researchers at Karolinska Institutet is intended for use in primary care.
  • News
  • Bella Rough
  • 2 October 2025

A simple calculator based on common biomarkers predicts patients’ risk of liver cirrhosis or related complications with 88% accuracy, a BMJ study has found.

The Cirrhosis Outcome Risk Estimator (CORE) analyses age, sex and three common liver enzymes (AST, ALT and GGT) to estimate the risk of major adverse liver outcomes (MALO) over 10 years in patients without a history of liver disease.

MALO is a composite outcome of compensated and decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplant and liver-related mortality.

Researchers from Sweden’s Karolinska Institutet developed CORE based on three decades of Swedish data covering 480,000 people, then validated it on UK and Finnish data.