The predicted influenza resurgence this winter appears to be running out of steam earlier than expected, with the steep fall in cases being attributed partly to a shrinking pool of susceptible patients.

The federal Department of Health and Ageing’s latest influenza surveillance report shows that, although the weekly number of notifications since mid-April exceeds the five-year average, cases peaked in early June and have since plummeted.

Nationally, there were some 16,700 laboratory-confirmed notifications with a diagnosis date in the fortnight to 17 July.

This represents a 55% drop in notifications compared with the previous fortnight’s tally of 37,000 cases.