People over 70 might be better off leaving straight after their flu shot rather than sitting around for the precautionary 15 minutes when COVID-19 is circulating in the community, says Victorian GP Dr Gerard Ingham.

Modelling that he carried out with a Monash University demographer suggests the 15-minute wait rule advised by ATAGI could be safely scrapped for elderly patients.

Their findings, published on a preprint server, indicate it is safer — irrespective of vaccination status or masking — for those aged 70 or older to leave the waiting room immediately when community prevalence of the pandemic virus is 0.5% (one in 200) or greater.

“This is because the risk of contracting COVID-19 in the 15-minute wait and dying from that infection is greater than 0.3 per million and thus outweighs the risk of anaphylaxis from influenza vaccine within those 15 minutes,” wrote Dr Ingham and co-author Associate Professor Rebecca Kippen.