Grim new COVID-19 surge modelling predicts that Australian ICUs will be swamped in just 10 days if case numbers continue to climb at the current trajectory.

According to Macquarie University Sydney research, published preprint by the Medical Journal of Australia, exponential growth suggests Australian hospitals do not have the capacity to cope, leading to much higher mortality than previously predicted.

The MJA editor-in-chief, Professor Nick Talley, says based on this surge modelling despite all the work underway across hospitals to increase ICU beds and ventilator capacity,“it won’t be enough”.

“We need a clear plan if PPE runs low or out … we need clear triage rules for who is ventilated or not if beds run short,” he wrote in an accompanying editorial, urging that swift decisions need to be made on these complex issues.