Sydney on brink of coronavirus outbreak, warn experts
Complacency could lead to a new wave of community transmission outside Victoria, epidemiologists say
The COVID-19 outbreak in southwest Sydney has the potential to spread across the state because of falling adherence to physical distancing, the latest modelling suggests.
People in NSW are recording 8.1 non-household contacts a day and only adhering to the 1.5 metre rule 36% of the time, according to a report published by The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity in Melbourne.
These figures, from the end of June, compare with 3.2 contacts and 63% adherence to physical distancing in April.
This means the statewide transmission potential is for an effective reproductive number of 1.09, meaning cases are likely to grow unless people changed their behaviour, according to the report.
