What will it take to end pandemic in Australia by July?

Tight social controls could contain the coronavirus but only if nearly everyone follows the advice, say Sydney University researchers

Tough social distancing measures will need to be adopted by at least nine out of 10 Australians if the coronavirus pandemic is to be brought under control by July, University of Sydney research shows. 

To effectively slow the spread of coronavirus, 90% of Australians will need to drastically cut their social interactions for at least 13-14 weeks.

The time to contain the spread of COVID-19 would increase by a month should that figure drop to 80%, according to the pandemic computer modelling. 

However, if fewer than 70% of Australians follow advice to stay indoors, the pandemic will not be suppressed during the time of social distancing and all previous measures will have been a waste of effort, say the researchers, led by pandemic modelling expert Professor Mikhail Prokopenko.