Mark Butler has identified “the most terrifying statistic in healthcare”: the fact only 15% of medical students are choosing general practice.

The Minister for Health made the assessment at the AMA National Conference in Sydney last month then made it a staple of his news radio and breakfast TV appearances.

Here, Australian Doctor looks at the numbers underlying the claim — but spolier alert, there are no easy answers.

The Medical Schools Outcomes Database, an annual survey run by Medical Deans Australia and New Zealand, attempts to find out what medical graduates plan to do with their careers.