Did the Morrison Government really prevent 40,000 COVID-19 deaths?

As an opening gambit to his re-election campaign, Prime Minister Scott Morrison claimed his handling of the pandemic had saved 40,000 lives.
This figure compares Australia over 2020 and 2021 with an average derived across higher-risk predominantly northern hemisphere countries.
He made similar comparisons to much higher-risk countries two years ago, at a press conference on 7 April 2020.
Morrison and Chief Medical Officer Brendan Murphy pointed to COVID-19 graphs comparing Australian cases with modelling.