China is in the midst of a severe wave of COVID-19 infections and deaths.

We don’t know exactly how bad it is because of significant gaps in official reporting, but by all indications, things are dire. News reports suggest hospitals and mortuaries are overflowing.

So how did China get here, and how will the situation play out?

Despite the popular perception that the current wave of infections is a direct result of the country lifting its zero COVID-19 policy in early December, this isn’t quite true.