Why Sydney’s COVID-19 numbers didn’t get as bad as modelling predicted

On Monday, Sydney emerged from a lockdown of more than 100 days after reaching the milestone of having 70% of the over-16 population fully vaccinated.

Modelling predicted NSW would “open up” with around 1,900 daily cases when this target was reached.

However, the state recorded just 496 new local cases on that day. And the current seven

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