The rise in metastatic prostate cancer incidence, predicted by opponents of the 2012 US move away from routine PSA screening, may now be happening, researchers say.

Harvard-led researchers used data from the National Cancer Institute’s Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database to examine prostate cancer incidence rates from 2010-15.

As expected, with fewer PSA tests being done, age-standardised incidence rates of localised disease, as defined by the National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) fell sharply between 2011 and 2012 and continued to decline until the last year analysed.

A sharp fall was also seen in the incidence of NCCN-defined unfavourable (intermediate or high-risk) localised disease between 2011 and 2012 and for some years the incidence continued to fall.