Prediction tools ‘underestimate CVD risk’ in Indigenous Australians

Even the best of the five evaluated equations needs work, say researchers
Indigenous health

Most cardiovascular risk prediction equations greatly underestimate the future risk of heart disease among Indigenous Australians, a study suggests.

This underestimation, which was greater in women and younger age groups, is exacerbated by low screening rates of the at-risk population, the researchers say.

Writing in Heart, the Menzies School of Health Research-led team used longitudinal data from 3600 Indigenous Australians, aged 30-74, and without heart disease, from five population-based cohort studies to investigate the performance of six CVD risk equations.

Five-year CVD predicted risk was calculated for each participant using the 1991 Framingham Health Study equation (1991-FHS) and the Central Australian Rural Practitioners Association adjusted FHS equation (CARPA-adjusted FHS).